AP Voter Poll: SSRS Survey Targets 100,000 Voters to Explain 2026 Election Outcomes

The Associated Press will release the first results from its AP Voter Poll at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday. Conducted by the nonpartisan research firm SSRS, the survey aims to provide a detailed analysis of voter behavior for the 2026 general election. The data will be shared with ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News Media, NBC News, and MS Now. This initiative replaces the AP VoteCast survey, which was conducted in general elections from 2018 to 2024. The new methodology blends traditional exit polling with pre-election interviews to capture the motivations behind voting coalitions.

The project launched in 2025 as a comprehensive survey of verified voters. It seeks to explain how major demographic groups voted and which issues influenced their decisions. The poll will not report topline vote counts for specific candidates or parties. Instead, it focuses on the reasoning behind electoral choices and the composition of winning coalitions in races for the Senate and governor.

SSRS began fielding the pre-election component of the survey on October 19 in Alaska. In the other 49 states, data collection started on October 22. This phase continues through Election Day. Researchers contacted approximately 75,000 voters using mailed invitations, phone calls, and text messages. The sample was drawn from state voter files and probability and nonprobability opinion panels. Voters who had not yet cast a ballot by the time of the survey were recontacted on Election Day to confirm their final choice and voting method.

A second component involves in-person interviews at polling places in 15 states on Election Day. These states include Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. This phase adds approximately 25,000 interviews to the dataset. Early voting centers in Alaska also participated in the survey in late October. The combined data from the pre-election and in-person components will be blended to ensure the results reflect the estimated 2026 electorate in each state.

The questionnaire covers standard demographic variables, including age, sex, race, ethnicity, education, and ideology. Voters will also be asked about their views on the country’s leadership and direction. Key issues such as crime, the economy, foreign policy, healthcare, and immigration are part of the survey. In California, voters will specifically be asked how they voted on Proposition 40, a proposed one-time tax on billionaires. The national survey will also include a generic ballot question for House races, asking participants if they voted for the Democratic or Republican candidate.

The AP Decision Team will use the Voter Poll as one of several tools to analyze races on Election Night. The survey results will not be the sole factor in declaring a winner. Other considerations include official election results, vote history, registration and turnout data, and demographic information. However, in contests where one party has a history of lopsided victories and other data points align, the Voter Poll may serve as the final data point needed to declare a winner as soon as polls close.

Previous iterations of this survey have provided insights into specific electoral dynamics. In the 2025 New Jersey governor’s election, the data showed that Democrat Mikie Sherrill received support from about half of white voters and performed strongly among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. In the 2025 New York City mayoral race, the survey found that younger voters overwhelmingly supported Democrat Zohran Mamdani, while Andrew Cuomo’s coalition skewed older. The 2026 results will follow a similar pattern of analyzing group-level trends rather than individual race outcomes.

Results for the five states without a statewide race for U.S. Senator or governor, including Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington, will be included in the national survey. These states will not have separate state-level reports published. Additional state-level and national findings from the 15 exit poll states will be released throughout election night. The survey provides a snapshot of the American electorate as it stands on the day the polls close.