Heat Projected for 38 Wins After Rough NBA Opening Week
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index lowered Miami’s season outlook to 38 victories, down from preseason expectations of 46, as analysts debate early struggles for three teams.
By Noor Phillips ·
The Miami Heat face a diminished season outlook following their first week of play in the 2026-27 NBA campaign. As of Wednesday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projects the team will finish with 38 wins. That figure represents a drop from the 46 wins projected during the preseason. It also sits only one win above the team’s historical low of 37 victories recorded in the 2007-08 season.
The projection reflects immediate statistical struggles on both ends of the floor. According to GeniusIQ tracking, the Heat possess the seventh-worst offensive shooting luck in the league. They also hold the second-worst defensive shooting luck. Opponents have converted 53% of midrange attempts and 40% of three-pointers against Miami, per Cleaning the Glass data. Despite these favorable opponent metrics, the Heat’s own offense has struggled to gain traction.
Analysts at ESPN are divided on whether these early numbers signal a lasting decline or a temporary adjustment period. Zach Kram argues the poor start is not an overreaction to the team’s performance. He notes that guard Davion Mitchell is the only role player who appears comfortable playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. This suggests the roster may need further integration before finding stability.
Ben Golliver counters that the narrative is premature. He points out that Antetokounmpo has averaged 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in Miami’s three losses so far. Golliver argues that coach Erik Spoelstra deserves more time to adjust the system, particularly because Antetokounmpo’s ball-handling dominance clashes with Miami’s previous free-flowing offense. The team will test its resilience on an upcoming West trip against the Clippers, Kings, Warriors, and Jazz.
The uncertainty extends beyond Miami. The Oklahoma City Thunder are missing Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace for the foreseeable future due to significant injuries. Kram believes these absences, combined with the summer trade of Luguentz Dort, weaken the team’s defensive foundation enough to threaten its title hopes. Golliver, however, views the panic as an emotional overreaction, citing the remaining talent around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the team’s previous success despite injuries.
Other early narratives also split the analysts. The Golden State Warriors are considered a lost cause by both Kram and Golliver, who cite the absence of Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis and a starting lineup with combined salaries under $20 million. The Sacramento Kings face pressure on head coach Doug Christie, with both analysts agreeing he may not last until the new year. This follows a pattern of early-season coaching changes under owner Vivek Ranadivé since 2013.
In San Antonio, the decision to start a three-guard lineup featuring De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle remains under scrutiny. Both analysts agree it is too early to scrap the unit, noting the trio has posted a plus-15.4 net rating in 43 minutes of combined play. In New York, the Knicks’ offense ranks 25th, with the team making just 30% of midrange shots. Kram expects a turnaround given the roster’s similarity to the previous year, while the team faces a tough schedule that has left them below .500.
