NFL Week 9 Upset Watch: Vikings and Chargers Target Home Underdog Wins

The NFL regular season reaches its midpoint this week with eight home underdogs on the schedule. Week 8 produced mostly straight-up favorites, with the Raiders serving as the primary exception by beating the Jets as road underdogs. DraftKings odds are used for all lines in this report.

Minnesota hosts Buffalo on Monday at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings are 3.5-point underdogs at +150. Buffalo averages 33.3 points per game, the league high, while Minnesota limits opponents to 13.3, the league low. The Vikings lead the NFL with a 69.1% blitz rate. Josh Allen ranks 20th among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating against the blitz at 88.2. He has thrown three interceptions against pressure, tying for the second-most in the league.

Buffalo's defense allows 25.9 points per game, ranking 24th in the NFL. Minnesota's offense, led by Kyler Murray, has struggled since his acquisition this offseason. The Vikings have won despite their offensive output. Playing in a strong home-field environment may provide the necessary boost for the Vikings to secure the upset.

Los Angeles hosts Houston at SoFi Stadium on Saturday. The Chargers are 4.5-point underdogs at +180. Los Angeles holds a 0-7 record and ranks last in points per game at 14.1. The team leads the league in turnovers with 17. The Chargers have not scored a touchdown since the third quarter of Week 5. Houston has allowed 30 or more points in three games this season. The Texans have given up three 300-yard passing games, a stark contrast to zero such games in 2025.

Carolina hosts Denver at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday. The Panthers are 2.5-point underdogs at +124. Since 2024, Carolina is 8-9 against the spread as a home underdog. Bryce Young has been sacked 11 times in the last two games. Denver is tied for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL with 23. Carolina holds a rest advantage after playing on Thursday, while Denver may face fatigue after a win over the Chiefs.

Cincinnati faces Atlanta at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid on Friday. The Falcons are 3-point underdogs at +142. Tennessee scored 36 points against Cincinnati last week. Cam Ward passed for 304 yards and rushed for 41 yards in that game. The Bengals defense is dealing with injuries. Cashius Howell suffered a fractured wrist. Cornerback DJ Turner and defensive end Cedric Johnson are also injured. Atlanta gets James Pearce Jr. back after an eight-game suspension.

Cincinnati allows 4.8 yards per rush, tied for the fourth-highest in the NFL. Tony Pollard rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals last week. Bijan Robinson may find success on the ground against a vulnerable run defense. The Falcons may rely on a ground-controlled offense to win the international matchup.