Israel's Knesset results force a difficult choice on who leads next
With no single party holding a majority, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot face a complex negotiation process that could lead to a unity deal or a repeat election.
By Noor Phillips ·
The final counts from the Israeli general election have revealed the composition of the new Knesset, but the identity of the next prime minister remains undecided. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured a decisive victory. Both camps now face the arduous task of forming a governing coalition in the 120-seat assembly.
To command a majority, a leader must assemble at least 61 seats. The political landscape is fragmented, with Arab-led parties winning a historic 19 seats. These members now hold a decisive influence over the government's future, as their support can tip the balance for either of the two main contenders.
One potential path for Eisenkot involves an alliance with these Arab-led groups. Such a partnership would yield a 67-seat coalition, providing a stable majority against Netanyahu. However, this arrangement carries deep political risks for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies. Israel's Arab citizens, who constitute 20% of the population, are Palestinians whose families stayed in the country after the 1948 war. They maintain close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, often leading Jewish Israelis to view them with suspicion. Only one Arab party has joined a governing coalition before, in 2021, and that government lasted approximately 18 months.
Netanyahu has already characterized such an alliance as a betrayal of Israel's Jewish identity and a threat to national security. This rhetoric increases pressure on Eisenkot's right-leaning allies to reject the partnership. Conversely, Netanyahu could attempt to form a unity government by convincing Eisenkot and his allies to join his side. This configuration would also provide a 67-seat majority, leaving Arab-led parties, ultranationalist factions, and ultra-Orthodox groups in the opposition.
A unity government would allow leaders to address pressing issues, such as military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox and economic stability. However, it would require Eisenkot to break his promise not to serve alongside Netanyahu. Eisenkot's camp has blamed the prime minister for the security failures during the October 7, 2023, attack and for undermining democratic institutions. Netanyahu is also currently facing a corruption trial. Past opposition leaders who joined Netanyahu against voter wishes saw their political support drop sharply. This deal would also force Netanyahu to drop some of his loyal far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners.
Netanyahu may also seek to poach defectors from the opposition bloc. He could target right-wing leaders like Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman. Both support nationalist policies, such as expanding West Bank settlements, which makes partnering with Arab parties difficult for them. Yet, they have clashed with Netanyahu for years and strongly oppose the military exemptions that his ultra-Orthodox allies demand. Eisenkot has fewer poaching options, as Netanyahu's Likud party and its allies have remained fiercely loyal to him.
If negotiations fail, Israel may face another election early next year. Netanyahu's current government would serve in a caretaker capacity until then. This scenario could hurt Eisenkot's camp, which had momentum from tens of thousands of Israelis who traveled abroad to vote. Netanyahu would gain time to strengthen his position. Smaller right-wing parties that failed to enter parliament likely wasted pro-Netanyahu votes. Their supporters might switch to larger far-right parties in a second round. Israel experienced a similar stalemate in 2019, which led to five elections in 3.5 years.
