Paxton and Talarico Compete in Texas Senate Race Defined by Shifting Demographics

Texas heads into Election Day with the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico statistically tied.

Paxton, the three-term state attorney general, and Talarico, an Austin state legislator, have spent the final weeks campaigning across the state. Their efforts focus on courting undecided voters, including rural residents concerned about data centers, border-area Latino voters, and suburban households in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

South Texas offers a critical test for the Latino vote, which comprises over 30 percent of the eligible electorate. In 2024, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee in decades to carry Cameron, Hidalgo, and Webb counties. Starr County, which is 97 percent Latino, swung 76 percentage points toward Trump compared to 2016. However, early voting data indicates a potential reversal, with more early ballots cast in Hidalgo, Starr, and Webb counties this year than in the 2024 presidential election. Hispanic voters made up 19 percent of the statewide early electorate, an increase from 16 percent in 2022 and 17 percent in 2024, according to GOP data analyst Derek Ryan.

The North Texas suburbs of Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties collectively account for nearly 16 percent of the state's vote. These counties voted for Trump in 2024 by margins of 5, 11, and 13 percentage points, making them more Democratic than the state overall. Talarico needs to win Tarrant County by a substantial margin to win the state, while Paxton looks for strength in redder suburbs like Celina and Colleyville. The region also contains a large Asian American population, particularly in Collin County, which is more than one-fifth Asian American.

Harris County, Texas' most populous jurisdiction, has been a Democratic stronghold for a decade, but candidates rarely achieve the 60 percent share required to offset rural losses. Beto O'Rourke won 58 percent there in 2018, and no Democrat has exceeded that figure since. Talarico announced a $25 million initiative in September to boost Black voter turnout, a group where he performed poorly in the primary. Early voting in Harris County shows a 39 percent turnout rate, significantly higher than the 29 percent recorded in 2022.

Rural Texas remains a Republican base, with Ted Cruz winning more than 80 percent of the vote in 104 counties in 2024. However, local dissatisfaction with data centers and growth may suppress Republican turnout in counties such as Hale, Hood, Fisher, and Navarro. Paxton aims to maintain margins similar to Cruz's, while Talarico seeks to outperform the 2024 Democratic candidate, Colin Allred.

Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and undervoters may influence the final result. Brown polled between 1 and 3 percent in October, attracting more independents and Republicans than Democrats. Some conservative voters are leaving the Senate race blank in protest of Paxton, while still supporting other Republicans. Linda Misenheimer, a 72-year-old independent from El Paso, left the Senate race blank on her ballot, stating she could not vote in good conscience for any of the three candidates.