Israeli Opposition Weighs Minority Government as Leadership Rifts Persist

Fifty-nine seats may be the magic number that determines the next Israeli government, according to a plan being discussed by opposition leaders. This figure sits just below the sixty-one seats traditionally required to form a stable coalition, but it represents a specific threshold that Gadi Eisenkot believes could allow his bloc to take office. If the change-seeking parties manage to secure 58 or 59 seats in the upcoming election, Eisenkot argues they could still form a government. This approach would involve winning a confidence vote without the permanent backing of a full majority in the Knesset. The strategy is designed to break the deadlock that has plagued Israeli politics in recent years.

Current polling data suggests the camp opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds an advantage over the outgoing coalition bloc. However, the numbers are not yet sufficient to guarantee a majority under existing agreements. While some surveys show the right-wing bloc falling short of a majority, others indicate they might have enough seats to govern. The final seat distribution could hinge on small shifts in voter turnout and the electoral threshold. These minor variables could decide whether Israel moves forward with a new administration or faces another cycle of political uncertainty.

Eisenkot is positioning himself as the primary candidate to lead this new government. He has explicitly rejected the idea of serving under Netanyahu, even if it were a rotation arrangement. His proposal relies on the legal distinction between forming a government and removing one. Swearing in a new government requires a majority in a confidence vote, meaning abstentions can help a minority cabinet take office. This is different from a constructive vote of no confidence, which requires sixty-one MKs to support an alternative. Therefore, a minority government could be formed, but it could not easily remove a sitting Netanyahu government through the same mechanism.

Avigdor Liberman strongly opposes this minority government concept. He insists on a clear Zionist majority from the start and rejects the idea of relying on outside support or abstentions. For Liberman, a unity government with Netanyahu is also unacceptable. He has stated that holding another election would be preferable to serving in a government that does not meet his conditions. While he has suggested that some Likud MKs might join a government without Netanyahu, he has not named specific individuals. There are currently no public talks between his party and Likud members regarding this possibility.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, share Liberman’s preference for a Zionist government. They refuse to depend on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties to form their cabinet. However, Yair Golan, the chairman of the Democrats party, has not ruled out cooperating with the Ra’am party. This discrepancy highlights the internal friction within the opposition bloc. A recent meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman ended with a joint call to increase voter turnout, but the two leaders did not resolve their fundamental disagreement over the structure of the next government.

Leadership rivalry is also a factor in these discussions. Eisenkot aims to head the largest party in the bloc and become the main candidate for government formation. Bennett, on the other hand, views himself as a natural choice due to his experience as a former prime minister. This competition for the top spot adds another layer of complexity to the negotiations. The parties are still working to define their collective stance, but the desire to lead is a significant motivator for both Eisenkot and Bennett.

Separately from the government formation talks, the opposition is nearing an agreement on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. They view this change as a strategic move that can happen before a government is formed. The goal is to give Netanyahu’s opponents control of the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains as head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in a new Knesset term. The opposition bloc could potentially use votes from Arab party MKs to secure a majority for an agreed-upon candidate.

Several names have been raised for the speaker role, including Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list. Candidates from the Bennett-Lapid list include Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg. Efrat Rayten of the Democrats and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu are also on the list. Liberman estimated that as many as one-third of the outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, though they would need to do so openly. No consensus candidate has been announced yet, but the bloc is coordinating its efforts to secure this position.

The opposition also plans to advance several legislative priorities, including a state commission of inquiry into October 7 and changes to conscription laws. They want to limit the prime minister’s tenure and repeal some of the outgoing government’s judicial changes. Liberman specifically seeks a bar on individuals facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. While party teams have begun coordinating, there is no binding agreement on the details or the order of these changes. Obstacles remain, such as the fact that not every bloc member supports every judicial change. Additionally, the memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its promised laws, casts a shadow over these efforts.