Iran's New Supreme Leader Orders Military To Drop Geographic Limits

Iran's armed forces have been instructed to prepare for strikes without geographic limits, a directive that signals a potential expansion of the conflict to European soil. The order, issued by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on October 31, demands a response to any attack that is immediate and effective. This move follows weeks of trading threats between Tehran and Washington while diplomatic efforts continue.

The shift challenges a long-standing military cap of 2,000 kilometers on missile range. That limit, originally imposed by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was designed to keep Western Europe largely out of reach. Analysts and state media are now debating whether the younger Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since the strikes that killed his father, is formally lifting that restriction. The semiofficial ISNA news agency reported that the statement suggests a redefinition of strategic considerations governing Iran's missile policy.

Manuchehr Mottaki, a conservative lawmaker and former Foreign Minister, told state television that the next conflict would not be a regional war. He warned that if Iran is attacked, the ensuing war will reach Europe. Other commentators, including Ali Qolhaki, specified that European nations hosting US forces, such as Great Britain, Italy, Greece, and Germany, are now in Iran's crosshairs. The Young Journalists Club, affiliated with state broadcaster IRIB, claimed that Iran's target list now includes US bases in 51 countries, from the Middle East to East Asia.

Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, assessed that Tehran is preparing a broad and violent response to an American-Israeli attack. He noted that Iran is seeking to expand its target bank to include communication infrastructures and strategic assets in Gulf countries. He warned that the next campaign could be far broader and longer than Washington hopes.

Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst at Janes, offered a technical perspective. He stated that Iran has had the ability to extend missile range beyond 2,000 kilometers for some time by reducing warhead weight. He identified the Khorramshahr missile, unveiled in 2017, as the most powerful option. With a 750-kilogram re-entry vehicle, Binnie estimated its range at 3,000 kilometers. He noted that reaching Western Europe would require this extended capability, with Diego Garcia, a joint US-British base nearly 4,000 kilometers away, being the most obvious target.

The reformist daily Etemad cautioned that having the technical capability to build longer-range missiles is different from formally deciding to change course. Binnie suggested the new directive might refer to lifting existing agreements with Arab states not to target them. He pointed out that the previous 2,000-kilometer limit allowed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to strike regional targets without threatening most of Europe, with the exception of Cyprus and some Greek islands.