Latino support for Trump falls 20 points in final weeks of midterms

Latino voters have reduced their support for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party by nearly 20 points since the 2024 election.

The 2024 presidential race marked a historic shift when Trump won an outright majority of Latino men, a margin not seen by a Republican in decades. That performance prompted state Republican parties to anticipate a permanent realignment of the electorate. The current midterms have not delivered that shift, and the rapid decline in support is creating uncertainty in multiple House and Senate races.

Recent data from September 2026 shows Trump’s net favorability among Latinos standing at 42% unfavorable. Only 27% of Latino respondents approve of the president. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in October found that just 26% of Hispanic respondents planned to vote for a Republican candidate. These figures follow a period of intense focus on immigration enforcement and economic policy, which have become central drivers of voter sentiment.

The November 3 general election is the immediate next step. In Texas, State Representative James Talarico holds a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate seat, driven by strong turnout in Latino-majority counties. In Florida, state representative Angie Nixon defeated retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman in the Democratic primary and is set to face incumbent Senator Ashley Moody. Nixon secured large majorities in Miami-Dade, Broward, Osceola, and Polk counties.

Political strategist Mike Madrid, a former Republican operative, noted that the historical 75-25 split favoring Democrats no longer exists. He described the current Latino electorate as swingy and rational, voting based on economic performance and policy execution rather than ethnic affinity. Madrid stated that aggressive immigration tactics, such as visible enforcement in public spaces, are moving the needle for voters.

Polling firm BSPResearch identified cost of living, immigration, and jobs as the top three concerns for Latino voters. In South Texas, Democratic primary turnout in the Rio Grande Valley exceeded general election numbers from 2024, signaling high engagement. Despite the polling data, some Republican officials maintain that support remains stable. Ronnie Lucero of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly described the dip in support as slight, while Bettina Rodriguez, a former vice mayor of Doral, Florida, said Cuban American and broader Hispanic Republicans feel confident that administration promises on the economy and border have been kept.