US Intelligence Flags Advanced Iranian Plots, Reduces Diplomatic Presence

US intelligence agencies have identified advanced Iranian plans to target American personnel in the Middle East and other regions.

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that Iran has substantially increased its efforts to target US personnel overseas. The document, which was first reported by Axios, describes lethal plots as being in advanced stages. Clayton told Rubio that agencies have gathered intelligence showing these threats are moving from planning to execution.

The US and Israel began a war against Iran on February 28. Since that date, the Pentagon has confirmed that 21 US military personnel have been killed in the Middle East. In March, a US court convicted a Pakistani national of plotting to assassinate President Donald Trump and other politicians on the orders of the Revolutionary Guard. In 2022, a Guard member was charged with attempting to arrange the killing of former national security adviser John Bolton, allegedly offering $300,000 to individuals in the US to carry out the task. Last year, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran would continue to directly threaten US persons globally, particularly officials involved in the 2020 killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

This month, US authorities pulled bombers from an airbase in England following a security incident. UK authorities arrested several men on suspicion of working with Iranian intelligence after the move. The Times reported that threats to American officials, including ambassadors, have been assessed in recent weeks. Some intelligence suggests Iranian operatives are already active inside the US, though Washington has not commented publicly on the memo. A US official told the Times the memo is authentic but played down Iran's ability to carry out attacks, saying it lacks the capacity to follow through on all its ambitions.

The State Department announced on Wednesday that it is removing non-essential staff from its embassy in Saudi Arabia. The department cited escalating attacks on Saudi infrastructure by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. CNN reported that similar staff reductions are occurring at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Lebanon. A US official told the Times that Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots targeting US officials are driving these decisions.

President Trump said on Friday that the US may do another little epic fury, using the codename for the war. Reports indicate the US and Israel may be preparing a new military campaign after next month's US mid-term elections. Threats to US citizens in the Middle East are now at the highest level since the conflict began, according to officials who spoke to the Times.

Iran has not responded to the memo. Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said on Wednesday that Tehran would adopt a new offensive strategy if the US renewed attacks. He stated that Iran would no longer limit itself to retaliation and added that the quality, range, and power of Iranian missiles have improved. Reuters reported that Tehran has detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if new US-Israeli attacks occur. Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned that cables, data centres, and artificial intelligence facilities across the region could be hit if war resumes.

The assessment comes as US officials monitor potential targets in Europe. The memo indicates that Iran has lined up potential targets in that region. Washington is maintaining a high alert status for American staff in the Middle East. The Department of State continues to manage personnel levels at diplomatic posts in the region based on the current threat environment.